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Statistics

Top versus rest

The top five teams by mean total and the bottom ten build the same class of machine: four or six wheels, passive articulation, an arm, a camera mast and a laptop at the command station. What separates them is completion. The two sets differ by 5.2 points in the review and by 44 to 56 points in each of the three hard missions, and the gap in total is 175.9 points. This page compares the two sets, using 23 team-years for the top five and 26 for the bottom ten from the 2022–2026 score sheets.

175.9Total gapTop-5 mean 354.6 against bottom-10 178.72022–2026S-URC-RESULTS
30.6 %Autonomy share of varianceEquipment 27.7 %, Delivery 24.3 %2022–2026S-URC-RESULTS
2.8 %Review share of varianceThe review gates but does not rank2022–2026S-URC-RESULTS
5.2Review points gapTop-5 mean 93.03 against 87.862022–2026S-URC-RESULTS

Key takeaways

  • The gap is in the hard missions, not the review. Top five against bottom ten: review +5.2, Science +20.8, Delivery +44.4, Equipment Servicing +49.2, Autonomy +55.7.
  • The three hard missions explain 82.6 % of the variance. Autonomy 30.6 %, Equipment 27.7 % and Delivery 24.3 %, against 2.8 % for the review.
  • The bottom ten is not uniformly worse. It is a normal Science team at 68.69 with almost no Equipment Servicing score at 9.84 and almost no Autonomy at 3.71.
  • Completion beats optimisation. The 2026 top eight scored a non-zero on all 32 mission runs; 12 of the other 28 zeroed Delivery and 16 zeroed Autonomy.

The two comparison sets

All values are finals team-years, 2022–2026. A team-year enters the means only when it has a finals score; the 25 review-only rows are excluded.

Set Teams Team-years Mean total Mean review Mean rank
Top five by mean 5 23 354.6 93.03 4.6
Bottom ten by mean 10 26 178.7 87.86 27.3
Gap +175.9 +5.17

The top five are Missouri S&T, West Virginia, Monash, Michigan and AGH. The bottom ten are Binghamton, KARURA, RoSE, Husky, Cornell, UdeG, RoboJackets, Robocol, Space Concordia and Team Interplanetar. Teams with a single finals appearance are excluded from both sets, so a one-year cameo cannot define the bottom; 18 teams fall into that excluded group S-URC-RESULTS.

A second set checks the first. In 2026 the largest score gap is first to second, 57.16 points, and the second largest is eighth to ninth, 324.59 to 274.91, a 49.68-point step. The eight teams that cleared 300 points therefore form a natural group.

Variance shares

Because total equals the review plus the four missions minus penalties, the exact contribution of each component to the spread of totals is its covariance with the total, and the contributions add to the variance of the total.

Component Share of variance Reading
Autonomy 30.6 % The largest single source of spread
Equipment Servicing 27.7 % Rewards a complete manipulator
Delivery 24.3 % The most volatile of the three
Science 14.4 % Everyone can score; it separates least
Review 2.8 % A gate, worth 20 % of the points and 2.8 % of the spread
Share of finals-total variance explained by the written review, 2017–2026
The written review has never explained more than about 6 % of the spread of finals totals, across a rename from CDR to SAR and a decade of rule changes. If the review ranked teams in proportion to its 100 points, the share would be about 20 %. Sample: the 2017–2019 and 2022–2026 official tables.Robotics Club @ Mississippi State University, 2026. Original analysis. S-URC13-SCORES S-URC19-SCORES Full resolution
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The interactive chart shows the pooled 2022–2026 shares. The static figure is a time series, so the two answer different questions: one is the pooled apportionment, the other its stability across ten years.

Where the gap is

Component Top five Bottom ten Gap 2026 top eight 2026 9–36 2026 gap
Review 93.03 87.86 +5.17 88.91 84.85 +4.05
Science 89.53 68.69 +20.83 93.88 74.05 +19.83
Delivery 53.67 9.27 +44.40 63.50 11.24 +52.26
Equipment Servicing 59.02 9.84 +49.18 64.94 18.90 +46.04
Autonomy 59.39 3.71 +55.68 70.90 14.07 +56.83
Total 354.6 178.7 +175.9 382.1 203.1 +179.0
Mean score by component for four comparison sets
The review bars nearly touch while the three hard-mission bars do not. The four mission means are not independent, because every mission needs a driving rover, so the gaps are diagnostic rather than additive. Samples: 23 top-five and 26 bottom-ten team-years; eight and 28 teams in the two 2026 sets.Robotics Club @ Mississippi State University, 2026. Original analysis. S-URC-RESULTS Full resolution

The bottom ten is a competent Science team with a broken manipulator and no autonomy. Science has the smallest gap of the four missions, which is why it is the wrong place to look for a differentiator. The 2026 top eight wins by completing: five of them share the same Autonomy score of 86 and the rest of the field averages 14.07 because 16 of 28 scored nothing.

Trajectories

Team 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Missouri S&T 370.71 298.24 341.54 412.27 469.57
West Virginia 268.67 425.35 391.80 396.17 376.70
Monash 380.55 354.83 247.35 320.61 412.41
Michigan 388.97 343.08 274.41 299.62 375.89
AGH 341.10 274.17 392.76 review only
UIU 236.67 273.59 304.25 325.93 400.44
Northeastern 207.88 256.86 271.69 362.42 349.56
Sooner 271.65 260.12 238.01 179.79

Totals by year for the eight most informative programmes S-URC-RESULTS. An empty cell means the team did not record a finals score that year.

Five-year total-score trajectories against the field median
Seven trajectories against the field median band. Every repeat winner or podium team also had a season below 300 points, which is why single-year rankings are a poor description of a programme. Sample: 2022–2026 score sheets.Robotics Club @ Mississippi State University, 2026. Original analysis. S-URC-RESULTS Full resolution
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The interactive view plots seven of these programmes, including Yonder Dynamics, on one axis.

Four teams won in five years and eight teams took the fifteen podium places. The biggest sustained climb is UIU, from 13th in 2022 to 3rd in 2026 on a within-year z-score change of +1.91; the biggest fall is Sooner, from 7th to 32nd. A platform-change year costs a season: Monash rebuilt its arm and its autonomy stack in the same year and fell to 16th with 18 points in Equipment Servicing and none in Autonomy S-URC-RESULTS.

Consistency

Mean total against year-to-year standard deviation for 28 teams
Each team’s mean final total against the standard deviation of its finals totals, for the 28 teams with at least three appearances. Better teams are more variable, not less: the fit has a slope of +0.15 points of standard deviation per point of mean total. Sample: 28 teams, 2022–2026.Robotics Club @ Mississippi State University, 2026. Original analysis. S-URC-RESULTS Full resolution

The top five’s year-to-year standard deviation is 52.3 against 26.4 for the bottom ten, and the correlation between a team’s mean total and its spread is +0.56 across the 28 teams with at least three appearances. The most stable totals in the data belong to KARURA at a standard deviation of 5.6 and a mean of 191, TMR at 10.2 and 256, and Project Scorpio at 10.7 and 246, all mid-field or lower. Consistency of the total is not a signature of the elite; consistency of completion is S-URC-RESULTS.

The values on this page

Statistic Value Definition Period Sample Source Chart and chapter
Total gap 175.9 Top-five mean minus bottom-ten mean 2022–2026 49 team-years S-URC-RESULTS How the top differs
Autonomy share 30.6 % Covariance with the total over its variance 2022–2026 162 team-years S-URC-RESULTS Chart above; How the top differs
Review share 2.8 % Same method, written review 2022–2026 162 team-years S-URC-RESULTS Chart above; Review and judging
Review gap 5.2 Top-five mean minus bottom-ten mean 2022–2026 49 team-years S-URC-RESULTS How the top differs
2026 set gap 179.0 Top eight minus places 9–36 2026 36 teams S-URC26-SCORES Results explorer
Trajectory spread 52.3 against 26.4 Year-to-year total SD, top five against bottom ten 2022–2026 10 teams S-URC-RESULTS Chart above; Teams and hardware

Evidence note

The variance decomposition attributes shared variance to the mission it co-varies with, so each share is an upper bound on that mission’s causal importance. The comparison sets are selected on a mean over at least two seasons, which rewards programmes that returned; 18 single-appearance teams are excluded from both sides. The qualitative comparison rests on four Tier A dossiers, all of them top eight in 2026, so it describes what the winners do and not what the losers fail to do. Country, funding and team size are not controlled.

Sources for this page

  1. S-URC-RESULTSURC official scores 2022–2026, compiled CSVThe Mars Society / URC, 2022–2026.Print copy
  2. S-URC26-SCORESURC2026 Official ScoresURC, 2026-05/06.Original Archived copy